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Very few decisions in medicine are entirely free of risk, and working out an acceptable level of risk is a constant challenge. GPs must weigh up the chances of missing a cancer diagnosis, or a serious infection developing, against the alternative risks of overinvestigation, adverse side effects, and antimicrobial resistance. These calculations go on in our heads, often subconsciously, every time we think about what symptoms to investigate and which abnormalities on laboratory tests to follow up.