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1-004 Temporal trends in the mortality of calcific aortic valve disease in the United Kingdom over the past 3 decades

heartjnl · 2025-08-13 · canonical JSON source

3 visible annotations · policy: published · automated confidence ≥ 75.00%

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Introduction Calcific aortic valve (CAV) disease imposes significant burden due to the associated morbidity and mortality. With the increasing life expectancy in many developed nations, the incidence of aortic valve disease is on the rise, and consequently the associated burden and increased risk of mortality. As a result, evaluating the temporal trends in calcific aortic valve-related mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) is warranted to enable effective introduction of health policy measures and risk stratification.Methods Temporal trends in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CAV across the UK, and also across the 4 nations (England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland) for the period of 1990–2019 were evaluated by retrieving data from the Global Burden of Disease database. Joinpoint analysis software was utilized to calculate the Annual Percent Change (APC) and the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC).Results Over the period of 1990–2019, an estimated total of 125,998 CAV-related deaths with a female predominance of 56.5% were reported in the UK. A statistically significant increase in the ASMR was observed in the UK with an AAPC of 0.88 (95%CI 0.81 to 0.92, p<0.001). Furthermore, a statistically significant increase in the ASMR was noted across the 4 nations with Northern Ireland experiencing the highest incline (AAPC 2.32, 95%CI 2.08 to 2.54, p<0.001), followed by Scotland (AAPC 2.11, 95%CI 1.91 to 2.29, p<0.001), Wales (AAPC 1.25, 95%CI 0.97 to 1.48, p<0.001), and England (AAPC 0.69, 95%CI 0.61 to 0.76, p<0.001). Across England, a statistically significant increase in the ASMR was also observed across all regions except Greater London which observed a statistically insignificant increase in the ASMR (AAPC 0.050, 95%CI -0.08 to 0.15, p<0.001). Among the other regions, Yorkshire and the Humber witnessed the highest increase in the ASMR (AAPC 1.11, 95%CI 1.00 to 1.20, p<0.001), followed by South West England (AAPC 1.06, 95%CI 0.92 to 1.17, p<0.001), and East Midlands (AAPC 1.03, 95%CI 0.92 to 1.12, p<0.001).Conclusion Over a span of 3 decades, the UK witnessed a statistically significant increase in the mortality attributed to calcific aortic valve disease. These findings warrant prompt recognition to evaluate the factors leading to this marked increase in the mortality.